F1 Ð THE PHONEY WAR IS OVER
- 29 May 2013
In days of yore it was once known as the Winter World Championship. Through the 80’s and 90’s McLaren, Ferrari and Williams would slug it out in test sessions throughout southern Europe, mainly in Spain and Portugal, and going into a season you usually had some idea where each team stood. Occasionally some cheating, underweight interloper would liven up proceedings with a mega time, usually to impress potential sponsors, but generally you would get a feel for the grid. Sometimes, of course, you would get it completely wrong. Ferrari, for example, was generally considered to have comfortably won the 1990-91 winter crown and it was felt that Prost was in with a great chance of a fourth title. Bit of a bugger then that Ferrari didn’t win a race in ’91, and that Prost was sacked by the end of the year for describing the car as a truck.
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It can’t really be described as a Winter World Championship any more. There are only fifteen days of testing allowed in four tests at three circuits. To show just how vast the difference is, I’ll use 1999 as an example. And 1999 was not the high point. There was 171 days of testing in 61 separate tests at 9 different circuits. Sure, quite a few of these were a single team running on a single days, say Ferrari at Fiorano, but you get the picture.
During the tests these days, many teams are concentrating mainly on tyre wear over longer stints and just making sure that the bloody things actually work for a Grand Prix distance. Most, using their simulators, already know just how quick they can be on a qualifying lap of any circuit in the world, so many do not bother with testing banzai laps any more. Hardly ever are any two teams running the same programme and fuel load at the same time so the regular punter can only get a general, fairly hazy, feel of who is where.
You can’t even get a real feeling of what impact new rules will make on the racing or running order. Will, for example, the movable rear wings make overtaking easier? Dunno. It’s not much point basing your opinion on tests where the guy in front may be fifty kilo’s lighter in fuel and therefore going faster. One may or may not have their KERS activated. Some drivers mentioned that you won’t be able to pass anyway as there are so many “marbles” off line due to the degradation of the new Pirelli tyres. Pirelli say that there won’t be such high degradation once we get to the warmer climates that races are usually run in and that this was only a problem due to the cool weather in Europe at this time of year.
So what’s going to happen this year? Buggered if I know. And that will make Albert Park interesting. I hope. Because Albert Park, and I know as an Australian I will be shot for saying this, is as boring a Grand Prix race track as has ever been designed. Unless there is some outside influence, and hopefully the moveable rear wings, KERS and the Pirelli tyres will have the desired effect, it is usually impossible to overtake at Albert Park. Can anyone out there actually name one on track overtaking move for the lead in Melbourne? And Hakkinen v Coulthard doesn’t count. Nor does Ralf Schumacher’s as he was about thirty feet in the air at the time.
And that’s sort of the point. It is not a great advert for a track if there is more aerial activity than on track passing manoeuvres. There are supposedly three passing spots at Albert Park. Turn one, where there have been numerous first lap pile ups, including the afore mentioned Ralf’s assault on Barrichello, but bugger all passing. Turn three is more often remembered for; a) Martin Brundle’s aerial antics in the Jordan in ’96, b) Jacque Villeneuves more tragic repeat of Martin’s stunt in 2001 or, c) Kamikaze Kobayashi’s harpooning of Hulkenberg last year. And turn nine, well nothing ever happens there because just off line is a bloody great bump in the track surface and if you go across that in the breaking zone you are only ever destined for the kitty litter. Normally it is just one and a half hours of cars following each other about hoping for the guy in front to retire.
Don’t get me wrong though. I love having a Grand Prix in Australia. The speed, the sound, the smell and the atmosphere are all a wonderful assault on the senses. I just wish there was an actual race as well. There have been times when, 20 or so laps into a race I have thought, “God I wish this would just hurry up and finish.” And I believe that many other fans are thinking much the same thing. This is why spectator numbers are falling not because they need more off tract entertainment. It’s a great event but a shithouse race track and if your average family wants to spend one to two months income on a three day Grand Prix, they want to see some actual, bloody, racing! If the Australian Grand Prix is to survive in the long term it must move. But to where? To Sydney at a modified (heavily) Eastern Creek perhaps. Homebush is a fantasy/nightmare which will never happen. Back to Adelaide? Not sure if they could afford it any more. Or perhaps, as has been suggested, a purpose built track outside Melbourne.
Still, the anticipation is high. Who will be on pole? Will the new regs work? Who will win? My guess is; a) either a Red Bull or a Ferrari, b) to a certain extent & c) either a Red Bull or a Ferrari. We may not get to see the full effects of the new rules until Malaysia where passing is possible under normal circumstances. That should be a VERY interesting race. Especially if it rains again.
And who is where? Well as previously mentioned it looks as if Red Bull and Ferrari have got it right for the start of the season. Hopefully Felipe Massa has returned to his best form after a difficult comeback year last season and we will have a genuine four way fight for the lead. McLaren seem to have too many problems and their lack of reliability has hampered their efforts to find any real pace so far. Mercedes probably have too much ground to make up from their “Oh fuck” moment in Valencia although they say their recent upgrade has made a huge difference. It is still very hard to turn a fat bulldog into a greyhound in such a short time.
Renault? Depends on how they get past losing Kubica and if the forward exhaust/blown floor concept works in all conditions and how much Nick Heidfeld can extract from it. Williams could surprise with their radical rear end and Toro Rosso have been showing good speed with their sort of twin floor concept, although how much of that is genuine speed we will only know on Saturday week. The twin floor idea has been tried before, very unsuccessfully by Ferrari in 1992. It ended Ivan Capelli’s career. The rest will bicker over the scraps.
Unless, of course, there is something else we don’t know yet.
Sam Snape
14/03/2011